Why Coronavirus Will Not Cause a Depression

Logic kills fear of COVID-19

Logic kills fear of COVID-19

We hear plenty of advice about Corona virus from media and governments, and despite their best efforts, panic reigns supreme. Millions still raid supermarkets to hoard toilet paper. Many worry about surviving physically and economically as COVID-19 makes its global rounds. There is much talk of another Great Depression, and most take a recession for granted. They are wrong, and you should take heart; there are things talking heads and bureaucrats cannot see. What paper-pushers fail to appreciate is the creation of immune survivors, as the curve of the pandemic moves through its billions of hosts. Here is the kind of graph governments show you regularly:

 

COVID-19 Standard graph

 

The graph explains why spreading out the pandemic is better than suffering it all at once, as hospitals would be overwhelmed. It does not include survivors, now immune to the disease, who quickly become the majority.

 

COVID-19 Intelligent graph

This graph is a more intelligent representation. As the virus moves across the board, it exudes immune survivors, who rapidly take over to become the largest mass. When that happens, governments take notice of them and begin regulating accordingly.

“Since a billion foreigners are immune, we can let them begin immigrating again,” soon becomes a headline.

It may take a year or two, but hundreds of millions will be moving around freely. Whether you are a business or a consumer, markets will return to normal. Government bureaucrats and media people cannot see very far ahead. They state the obvious for now, but little else. The pandemic will pass quickly and soon be forgotten. Markets will bounce back as a consequence. Be patient, and all will be well. In the meantime, as my daughter would say, chillax. Humans are much smarter than viruses.

 

 

Rob Larrikin

Author: Rob Larrikin